Deep neural networks (DNNs) have already impacted the field of medicine in data analysis, classification, and image processing. Unfortunately, their performance is drastically reduced when datasets are scarce in nature (e.g., rare diseases or earlyresearch data). In such scenarios, DNNs display poor capacity for generalization and often lead to highly biased estimates and silent failures. Moreover, deterministic systems cannot provide epistemic uncertainty, a key component to asserting the model’s reliability. In this work, we developed a probabilistic system for classification as a framework for addressing the aforementioned criticalities. Specifically, we implemented a Bayesian convolutional neural network (BCNN) for the classification of cardiac amyloidosis (CA) subtypes. We prepared four different CNNs: base-deterministic, dropout-deterministic, dropout-Bayesian, and Bayesian. We then trained them on a dataset of 1107 PET images from 47 CA and control patients (data scarcity scenario). The Bayesian model achieved performances (78.28 (1.99) % test accuracy) comparable to the basedeterministic, dropout-deterministic, and dropout-Bayesian ones, while showing strongly increased “Out of Distribution” input detection (validation-test accuracy mismatch reduction). Additionally, both the dropout-Bayesian and the Bayesian models enriched the classification through confidence estimates, while reducing the criticalities of the dropout-deterministic and base-deterministic approaches. This in turn increased the model’s reliability, also providing much needed insights into the network’s estimates. The obtained results suggest that a Bayesian CNN can be a promising solution for addressing the challenges posed by data scarcity in medical imaging classification tasks.

Keywords: Bayesian convolutional neural networks; Cardiac amyloidosis; Data scarcity; Probabilistic programming; Uncertainty; Deep learning

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